* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 65 67 74 77 74 72 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 47 47 55 57 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 42 44 49 52 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 13 10 10 12 17 22 29 32 40 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -4 -4 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -5 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 301 281 250 275 299 257 270 240 243 229 242 254 253 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.4 29.7 29.5 29.5 28.5 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 169 169 170 171 172 165 162 163 146 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 150 153 155 154 159 146 144 146 129 115 110 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 8 9 5 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 64 66 66 63 66 56 45 38 42 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 17 15 21 23 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 85 82 80 81 75 41 0 33 17 9 -13 -22 -9 200 MB DIV 29 57 45 38 41 36 20 47 23 48 56 29 48 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 4 1 12 3 0 -13 -11 -1 3 LAND (KM) 266 284 302 364 426 334 156 -94 144 242 412 659 723 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.9 25.4 26.8 28.4 29.9 31.3 32.5 33.6 34.8 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.3 87.6 87.5 87.4 86.3 84.6 82.4 79.7 76.1 72.0 68.7 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 6 7 9 12 13 15 17 17 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 49 46 40 43 30 32 30 47 24 29 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 3. 0. 7. 9. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 25. 35. 37. 44. 47. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 86.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.36 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 84.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.1% 11.3% 9.6% 7.0% 9.4% 19.1% Logistic: 4.8% 26.7% 15.1% 6.2% 0.0% 16.7% 46.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 8.9% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.4% Consensus: 3.9% 17.9% 9.6% 5.3% 2.4% 8.9% 22.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 47 47 55 57 54 52 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 45 52 44 44 52 54 51 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 46 38 38 46 48 45 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 38 30 30 38 40 37 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT