* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 51 60 63 72 72 70 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 51 60 40 53 53 52 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 38 43 49 36 43 46 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 7 10 14 6 15 16 22 28 41 50 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -3 -4 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 289 310 270 248 274 272 267 250 245 227 235 240 244 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.2 29.7 28.9 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 171 172 172 157 167 153 141 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 151 152 154 154 156 153 139 151 136 120 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 7 7 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 65 63 66 62 64 57 48 37 37 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 13 12 15 14 19 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 78 82 78 76 74 53 -6 30 2 20 -13 -7 -23 200 MB DIV 3 28 50 35 27 31 36 41 25 42 33 27 29 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 0 1 1 3 10 -10 10 -12 6 12 LAND (KM) 252 277 306 348 390 393 211 51 -9 164 268 492 646 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.1 26.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 32.0 33.7 35.1 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.8 87.3 87.5 87.7 87.0 85.5 83.7 81.5 78.2 73.8 70.5 68.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 8 11 11 14 18 18 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 47 46 44 41 45 45 6 48 35 22 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -6. -13. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. -1. 5. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 30. 33. 42. 42. 40. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 86.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.16 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 83.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 17.3% Logistic: 1.9% 13.5% 6.0% 1.4% 0.0% 3.6% 27.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 10.4% 5.4% 0.5% 0.0% 4.0% 15.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 44 51 60 40 53 53 52 46 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 42 49 58 38 51 51 50 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 37 44 53 33 46 46 45 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 36 45 25 38 38 37 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT