* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 51 57 64 65 68 66 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 51 57 49 48 51 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 38 42 48 43 44 46 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 13 8 10 11 11 14 19 30 43 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 -3 6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 272 290 302 279 248 299 274 275 236 238 229 230 232 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.4 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 170 171 171 165 163 158 140 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 152 153 152 152 151 155 147 149 142 120 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 8 10 8 9 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 68 67 65 66 64 64 54 43 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 11 13 13 15 15 20 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 67 69 77 82 78 55 28 -9 37 28 29 10 -11 200 MB DIV 30 21 34 53 41 43 40 32 41 38 43 44 35 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -2 0 -1 3 0 14 3 1 -19 -24 5 LAND (KM) 194 240 286 340 362 414 269 147 -80 148 222 427 616 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.8 26.1 27.3 28.5 29.9 31.5 33.3 34.5 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.7 86.2 86.7 87.2 86.8 85.8 84.5 82.6 79.4 74.9 71.4 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 14 19 18 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 43 43 44 40 45 30 33 36 39 23 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -6. -13. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. 5. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 34. 35. 38. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 85.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.64 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.37 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.4% 10.3% 8.7% 6.1% 8.6% 17.0% Logistic: 2.8% 18.8% 10.0% 3.6% 0.0% 5.2% 25.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.7% 13.1% 7.1% 4.1% 2.1% 4.6% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 39 43 51 57 49 48 51 49 46 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 41 49 55 47 46 49 47 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 44 50 42 41 44 42 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 35 41 33 32 35 33 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT