* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 52 59 67 70 72 69 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 52 59 55 49 51 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 50 49 46 49 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 13 9 14 9 14 15 27 40 50 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 297 279 280 284 269 273 269 267 249 233 223 231 233 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.0 29.4 29.6 28.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 169 169 169 169 171 171 170 160 164 153 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 152 152 151 153 151 156 150 141 146 136 121 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 67 64 66 67 63 65 62 65 56 44 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 11 14 14 17 18 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 61 65 71 77 80 56 45 -8 27 9 27 -3 4 200 MB DIV 57 29 17 32 37 22 37 32 43 30 17 3 34 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -7 -1 0 3 5 2 11 -7 -8 -28 -17 LAND (KM) 142 199 260 307 354 442 316 170 -36 118 189 289 619 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.8 25.6 26.9 28.1 29.4 30.8 32.4 33.7 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.1 85.8 86.2 86.6 86.9 86.0 84.5 82.7 80.2 77.3 73.5 69.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 55 42 42 42 42 39 44 34 43 24 46 34 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -4. -12. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 37. 40. 42. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.8 84.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.33 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.85 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.9% 10.0% 8.4% 5.9% 8.4% 16.4% Logistic: 4.0% 22.5% 14.6% 6.7% 0.0% 9.5% 32.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 3.1% 14.1% 8.5% 5.1% 2.0% 6.0% 16.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 43 52 59 55 49 51 48 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 50 57 53 47 49 46 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 45 52 48 42 44 41 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 37 44 40 34 36 33 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT