* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 44 51 60 66 72 70 71 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 44 51 60 66 49 49 50 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 38 43 49 56 44 45 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 10 15 11 10 10 11 18 25 36 50 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -6 0 -4 4 -6 SHEAR DIR 328 302 271 280 294 239 282 247 256 231 239 221 234 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 169 169 168 169 171 172 161 164 163 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 151 152 151 150 150 153 156 141 145 148 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 7 8 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 62 64 65 64 65 63 61 50 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 18 17 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 66 67 73 63 46 28 -8 29 17 18 -3 200 MB DIV 49 46 16 16 20 7 22 29 9 33 14 37 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -5 -5 -1 0 5 1 13 10 -3 -13 -22 LAND (KM) 105 154 213 267 323 396 421 294 131 -75 170 265 427 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.4 25.1 25.9 27.1 28.6 30.0 31.1 32.3 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.9 85.6 86.1 86.6 87.1 87.0 86.0 84.2 82.1 79.5 76.0 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 6 9 11 12 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 63 49 43 44 44 42 39 45 30 25 38 46 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -10. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 2. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 21. 30. 36. 42. 40. 41. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.6 84.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.85 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 16.0% Logistic: 2.5% 13.9% 7.7% 2.2% 0.0% 6.8% 30.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.9% 10.6% 5.8% 0.7% 0.0% 5.0% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 37 44 51 60 66 49 49 50 43 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 35 42 49 58 64 47 47 48 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 37 44 53 59 42 42 43 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 46 52 35 35 36 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT