* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 38 45 51 60 65 71 73 76 72 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 38 45 51 60 65 71 52 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 56 63 48 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 6 6 13 7 13 6 16 15 19 29 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -4 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 -4 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 318 334 325 269 274 258 275 273 259 237 235 234 239 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.7 28.9 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 166 167 166 169 169 164 163 164 151 159 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 148 150 147 147 145 142 141 145 133 137 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 66 62 64 61 65 61 63 53 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 13 13 15 15 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 59 60 62 67 77 79 51 41 -11 22 -3 18 15 200 MB DIV 29 43 50 25 13 26 25 29 21 23 24 23 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 -3 -5 -1 4 2 9 9 -8 12 -1 LAND (KM) 65 90 122 197 278 350 429 388 251 138 -51 190 244 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.6 29.5 30.6 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.1 84.7 85.5 86.4 87.3 87.1 86.7 86.0 84.4 81.7 79.4 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 4 4 6 7 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 63 70 60 41 40 46 41 43 49 30 23 48 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 30. 35. 41. 43. 46. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.4 83.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.70 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.31 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.0% 10.2% 8.8% 6.4% 8.7% 17.4% Logistic: 2.9% 17.5% 9.6% 3.4% 0.0% 5.2% 21.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 2.9% 12.3% 6.8% 4.1% 2.1% 4.7% 13.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 38 45 51 60 65 71 52 57 53 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 43 49 58 63 69 50 55 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 37 43 52 57 63 44 49 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 35 44 49 55 36 41 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT