* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 48 56 61 68 72 78 76 76 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 48 56 61 68 72 68 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 55 62 68 74 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 12 8 9 11 9 10 11 14 18 27 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -4 -4 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 1 -3 6 SHEAR DIR 313 314 323 292 262 287 246 286 241 263 228 242 236 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 167 167 166 169 169 167 163 164 161 152 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 150 148 146 146 145 143 141 143 141 132 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 69 68 65 63 65 64 64 62 61 51 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 15 19 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 60 64 71 74 66 40 27 -16 23 7 17 200 MB DIV 38 23 31 40 23 24 28 14 34 1 48 18 18 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 4 1 12 7 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 32 81 130 181 243 332 393 396 322 180 -7 51 230 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.5 25.1 26.0 27.0 28.1 29.3 30.2 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.3 83.2 84.2 85.0 85.8 86.9 87.4 87.3 86.6 85.1 83.0 80.8 78.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 7 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 58 66 44 37 43 44 40 50 45 14 19 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 26. 31. 38. 42. 48. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.4 82.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 60.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.1% 10.9% 9.4% 6.7% 8.8% 17.4% Logistic: 7.0% 36.3% 26.0% 14.9% 0.0% 17.0% 36.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 9.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 2.6% Consensus: 4.7% 21.1% 13.0% 8.2% 2.3% 8.9% 18.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 43 48 56 61 68 72 68 52 52 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 44 52 57 64 68 64 48 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 38 46 51 58 62 58 42 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 37 42 49 53 49 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT