* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL042020 06/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 40 35 31 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 40 35 31 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 42 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 18 19 20 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 25 40 47 56 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 21.4 22.0 19.1 16.6 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 84 87 77 72 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 75 77 70 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -58.1 -58.1 -57.9 -57.7 -57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 57 56 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -29 -34 -51 -59 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -23 -23 -47 -21 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 0 7 9 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 523 503 455 409 396 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.8 40.6 41.3 42.2 43.1 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 60.6 59.5 58.3 57.0 53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -27. -31. -32. -32. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 39.8 61.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042020 DOLLY 06/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.4% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042020 DOLLY 06/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042020 DOLLY 06/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 41 40 35 31 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 38 33 29 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 29 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT