* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042020 06/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 34 27 22 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 34 27 22 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 36 35 32 31 32 33 34 36 37 35 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 13 12 20 24 31 28 19 21 27 29 28 28 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 2 1 0 0 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 6 1 19 31 27 47 58 79 100 140 183 200 208 231 251 278 280 SST (C) 25.6 26.5 26.7 25.6 25.0 21.7 18.7 12.5 7.6 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.3 17.2 16.0 17.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 108 118 121 111 106 86 77 69 67 75 76 76 76 74 72 76 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 97 101 94 90 77 71 66 66 71 73 72 72 69 68 70 104 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.4 -57.6 -57.9 -58.0 -58.0 -58.1 -57.7 -57.4 -57.3 -57.4 -57.4 -57.4 -57.5 -56.9 -56.6 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 63 63 62 57 54 52 52 45 40 36 36 38 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 3 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -13 -15 -20 -25 -43 -79 -87 -79 -48 -52 -62 -66 -47 -53 -32 -28 200 MB DIV 17 -6 -10 -2 4 -28 -19 -35 -12 -3 -17 -13 -1 -4 0 -9 -19 700-850 TADV 2 6 -1 2 9 6 1 2 5 12 11 -13 -23 -15 -18 3 -34 LAND (KM) 511 563 590 583 592 553 491 278 485 989 1600 1262 722 310 -21 -42 -171 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.1 38.3 38.7 39.2 40.6 42.4 44.3 45.6 45.6 44.8 43.9 43.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.2 65.3 64.1 62.7 61.3 58.6 55.8 52.1 47.0 40.2 32.4 24.7 18.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 12 12 13 15 18 21 26 28 27 22 17 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -24. -28. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -14. -16. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 4. -3. -8. -8. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.1 66.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042020 FOUR 06/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.8% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.8% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042020 FOUR 06/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042020 FOUR 06/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 38 34 27 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 35 31 24 19 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT