* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 35 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 35 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 15 18 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 5 6 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 125 148 160 182 202 211 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 120 121 122 123 120 119 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 97 98 100 100 97 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 36 35 34 38 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -88 -99 -101 -107 -74 -26 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -50 -27 -19 -9 -14 5 9 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 1 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1535 1552 1570 1546 1524 1468 1413 1360 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 36.0 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.5 35.8 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.1 41.5 42.1 42.8 43.8 44.4 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.4 40.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.2% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 5.5% 4.6% 1.9% 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.9% 5.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 35 36 35 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 35 36 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 25 28 30 31 32 33 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 21 23 24 25 26 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT