* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 41 42 44 45 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 41 42 44 45 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 11 5 3 8 15 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 270 274 267 123 167 202 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 123 112 112 113 117 119 123 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 102 93 92 93 95 96 99 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.1 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 31 32 35 37 38 36 35 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -103 -106 -94 -93 -77 -83 -93 -102 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -33 -49 -39 -46 -23 -16 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -14 -14 -9 -4 -1 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1111 1221 1332 1406 1480 1560 1554 1472 1377 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 38.5 37.9 37.4 36.9 36.0 35.6 36.0 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 43.3 42.1 41.6 41.0 41.0 41.8 42.7 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 39.0 44.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 4.2% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 41 42 44 45 46 45 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 35 38 39 40 42 43 44 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 31 34 35 36 38 39 40 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 27 28 29 31 32 33 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT