* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 39 42 41 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 39 42 41 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 29 30 32 34 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 9 4 3 13 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -6 -5 -4 -4 -1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 247 249 265 281 92 146 190 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.6 26.2 26.3 26.0 26.7 26.6 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 116 116 113 118 116 121 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 96 96 93 96 94 97 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 32 31 33 36 39 38 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -118 -116 -108 -100 -93 -86 -95 -115 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -22 -36 -51 -47 -37 -16 -17 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -19 -10 -12 -15 -5 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 986 1085 1189 1286 1383 1504 1545 1519 1419 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 39.0 38.6 38.1 37.5 36.5 35.7 35.6 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 45.0 43.6 42.7 41.8 41.2 41.8 42.5 43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 7 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 39.3 46.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.7% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/22/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 36 39 42 41 43 44 44 44 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 38 41 40 42 43 43 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 35 38 37 39 40 40 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 28 31 30 32 33 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT