* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 41 43 45 43 40 39 40 39 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 41 43 45 43 40 39 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 39 42 43 43 42 41 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 14 13 14 2 6 15 18 17 13 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -6 -5 -6 -4 -5 0 2 4 2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 249 253 244 249 284 118 153 183 206 207 239 264 SST (C) 26.2 24.8 25.4 25.6 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 106 110 111 117 115 117 118 122 122 120 118 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 91 94 94 98 95 95 96 98 97 96 94 91 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.5 -53.6 -53.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -53.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 34 32 33 32 31 33 37 38 35 37 41 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -98 -108 -121 -115 -104 -96 -87 -92 -104 -90 -31 -29 -35 200 MB DIV -24 -10 -13 -14 -24 -45 -46 -13 -14 1 14 -20 -10 700-850 TADV -5 -16 -17 -9 -10 -8 -2 -1 0 0 -3 1 -3 LAND (KM) 789 880 991 1107 1228 1420 1535 1568 1548 1510 1448 1400 1353 LAT (DEG N) 39.9 39.6 39.3 38.9 38.4 37.2 36.1 35.4 35.1 35.3 36.0 36.5 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 48.3 46.3 44.7 43.2 41.6 41.3 41.9 42.9 43.3 43.2 43.2 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 13 11 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 5. 4. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 39.9 50.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.30 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.4% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 41 43 45 43 40 39 40 39 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 40 42 44 42 39 38 39 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 36 38 40 38 35 34 35 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 31 33 31 28 27 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT