* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 45 47 45 43 40 38 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 45 47 45 43 40 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 37 40 43 44 43 41 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 17 16 10 4 12 18 19 19 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -6 -4 -2 3 6 7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 246 244 255 255 249 248 215 145 172 200 204 212 235 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 24.0 24.6 25.3 26.4 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.1 26.6 25.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 100 104 108 117 121 120 122 122 117 111 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 100 87 89 92 97 98 97 99 99 95 91 93 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.2 -53.5 -52.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 6 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 38 35 32 33 34 33 38 40 38 38 44 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -94 -108 -119 -108 -98 -86 -78 -88 -95 -77 -28 -49 200 MB DIV -26 -19 -10 -10 -17 -36 -37 -22 -11 -9 5 3 -14 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -18 -22 -8 -15 -3 -3 0 0 0 -3 4 LAND (KM) 712 760 843 963 1092 1318 1454 1525 1562 1516 1402 1306 1237 LAT (DEG N) 40.3 40.2 40.0 39.6 39.1 37.8 36.7 35.8 35.0 35.1 36.0 37.0 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 50.4 48.2 46.4 44.6 42.5 41.8 42.0 42.8 43.6 44.2 44.2 43.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 12 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 10. 8. 5. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 40.3 52.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.28 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 346.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 3.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.3% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 38 41 45 47 45 43 40 38 38 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 39 43 45 43 41 38 36 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 40 42 40 38 35 33 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 33 35 33 31 28 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT