* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 53 57 63 68 71 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 53 57 63 68 71 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 46 52 59 65 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 7 3 10 13 0 10 3 5 6 6 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 -5 -5 1 -4 2 -1 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 286 297 248 259 283 54 267 141 273 59 56 71 115 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 142 148 156 160 161 157 153 151 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 128 130 138 144 148 147 140 134 129 128 127 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 47 45 47 49 46 50 46 51 52 56 58 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -33 -19 -13 -24 -18 -30 -27 -31 -17 -41 -12 -44 200 MB DIV -10 17 0 -3 3 5 -2 13 2 22 0 26 -6 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -4 -4 -10 4 -7 1 2 -1 3 0 4 LAND (KM) 400 348 295 244 161 88 134 320 395 289 214 189 109 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 73.7 75.0 76.2 77.6 80.5 83.2 85.9 88.1 90.0 91.2 92.3 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 12 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 14 29 83 45 36 93 29 32 42 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 28. 32. 38. 43. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 72.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.69 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.8% 11.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.5% 6.5% 3.3% 1.3% 1.9% 5.3% 23.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.8% 6.0% 3.5% 0.4% 0.6% 6.7% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/12/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 53 57 63 68 71 74 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 42 51 55 61 66 69 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 37 46 50 56 61 64 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 37 41 47 52 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT