* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 35 42 50 55 62 67 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 35 42 50 55 62 67 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 45 51 58 64 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 5 1 8 8 4 6 4 4 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 0 -6 -2 -3 -2 1 -4 1 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 265 295 320 258 266 308 210 340 160 34 71 75 113 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 138 138 140 150 156 161 160 156 152 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 126 126 128 139 144 149 144 138 130 128 126 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 12 9 12 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 48 48 48 49 48 51 54 56 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -16 -30 -16 -10 -19 -17 -41 -26 -27 -14 -16 -22 200 MB DIV -9 -6 2 -7 -3 13 -6 3 -3 4 19 -10 18 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -2 -2 -5 -4 0 -9 3 -2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 378 371 342 288 251 122 88 164 347 374 255 178 101 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.8 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 72.0 73.2 74.3 75.5 78.2 80.8 83.6 85.9 87.8 89.2 90.2 90.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 12 13 10 9 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 37 32 23 25 65 45 35 85 33 33 34 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 30. 37. 42. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.2 70.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 193.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.1% 12.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 12.7% 7.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.7% 2.2% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 9.6% 6.8% 3.9% 0.4% 0.2% 6.0% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/12/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 35 42 50 55 62 67 71 73 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 33 40 48 53 60 65 69 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 29 36 44 49 56 61 65 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 28 36 41 48 53 57 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT