* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 53 58 64 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 53 58 64 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 45 51 58 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 7 4 16 1 15 2 5 4 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 -4 4 -1 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 269 257 278 292 269 278 280 268 202 252 109 70 88 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.4 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 138 138 143 154 156 163 158 156 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 127 126 127 133 143 145 149 142 136 129 129 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 49 47 46 49 48 50 48 52 51 55 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -24 -33 -18 -22 -13 -28 -28 -40 -24 -33 -15 200 MB DIV 14 -4 -12 0 0 4 14 2 1 -3 6 0 15 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -8 -4 -4 -9 1 -9 0 -3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 401 389 382 337 278 155 69 45 215 401 351 269 180 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.0 23.3 23.6 24.4 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.8 72.0 73.1 74.3 76.8 79.5 82.1 84.8 86.8 88.6 89.7 90.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 11 10 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 35 33 23 64 47 40 61 67 26 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 23. 28. 33. 39. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.3 69.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 196.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.6% 12.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 14.9% 9.1% 4.9% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 10.2% 7.1% 4.1% 0.5% 0.4% 5.6% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/11/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 53 58 64 68 71 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 39 46 51 56 62 66 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 42 47 52 58 62 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 34 39 44 50 54 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT