* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 33 38 42 47 50 55 57 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 33 38 42 47 50 55 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 34 38 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 11 12 14 13 16 13 14 12 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -2 -2 0 -6 -5 -7 -8 -2 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 264 277 280 284 263 284 273 304 274 316 300 316 296 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 140 138 138 137 138 137 148 152 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 129 126 125 125 124 126 124 134 135 132 130 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 49 49 46 47 46 49 46 49 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 2 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -18 -11 -1 -10 6 -7 8 -16 -10 -37 -30 200 MB DIV 0 5 -1 3 -5 -6 1 11 -3 0 0 -5 -2 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -5 -7 -9 -4 -8 0 1 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 444 407 334 272 223 177 166 106 85 41 31 22 11 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 67.1 68.1 69.0 69.7 71.3 72.9 74.8 76.5 78.4 79.9 81.2 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 8 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 27 24 25 30 29 23 35 27 35 49 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 30. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 66.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 193.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.5% 11.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 2.5% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.7% 4.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3% 5.3% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/11/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 30 33 38 42 47 50 55 57 60 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 32 37 41 46 49 54 56 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 32 36 41 44 49 51 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 29 34 37 42 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT