* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 40 45 48 53 56 61 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 40 45 48 53 56 61 39 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 43 49 35 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 16 15 16 7 13 5 16 6 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 -2 -4 -6 -3 -5 -7 -8 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 288 273 275 280 285 281 297 297 295 292 313 318 358 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 141 142 142 141 139 140 153 161 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 125 125 127 129 129 128 129 141 146 143 140 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 48 49 50 50 48 49 49 51 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -12 -6 -11 0 -7 -5 -13 -9 -22 -25 -37 -16 200 MB DIV -7 3 -1 -10 -2 -19 5 -15 22 -6 10 7 12 700-850 TADV -3 -13 -9 -6 -8 -9 -7 -10 2 -6 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 441 408 367 356 366 329 320 368 340 283 0 -19 78 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.6 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.8 27.0 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.5 65.1 65.7 66.4 67.9 69.9 72.3 74.9 77.6 80.2 82.2 83.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 12 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 32 35 38 29 34 37 27 83 29 45 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 28. 31. 36. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.0 64.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 190.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 17.1% 13.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 19.3% 13.2% 8.5% 1.8% 11.9% 13.1% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 12.4% 9.1% 5.8% 0.6% 4.0% 9.0% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 36 40 45 48 53 56 61 39 45 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 41 44 49 52 57 35 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 36 39 44 47 52 30 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 30 35 38 43 21 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT