* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 41 47 51 58 62 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 41 47 51 58 62 67 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 35 40 46 54 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 15 13 11 9 8 8 7 9 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 280 267 254 265 276 262 279 278 321 260 339 299 353 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.4 29.1 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 143 141 140 139 139 143 154 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 126 127 128 126 126 125 126 130 139 142 143 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 50 50 52 49 49 48 50 47 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -19 -14 -12 -10 3 -6 -1 -12 -5 -24 -29 -41 200 MB DIV -2 5 8 -6 -17 -7 -7 2 13 -9 0 -7 3 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -12 -9 -6 -8 -4 -9 -2 0 -3 2 -1 LAND (KM) 486 480 447 422 401 323 298 344 330 308 217 3 -4 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.4 22.9 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.7 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.1 64.9 65.5 66.1 66.9 68.3 69.9 71.5 73.7 75.9 78.3 80.2 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 7 7 6 8 9 11 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 28 35 37 26 33 39 27 41 89 30 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -4. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 22. 26. 33. 37. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 64.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 184.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.6% 9.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 12.4% 7.0% 3.1% 0.5% 4.8% 3.6% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 8.3% 5.6% 3.0% 0.2% 1.6% 5.5% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/10/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 41 47 51 58 62 67 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 39 45 49 56 60 65 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 34 40 44 51 55 60 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 32 36 43 47 52 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT