* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 40 44 47 50 54 56 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 40 44 47 50 54 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 15 19 17 22 18 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 2 4 -2 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 223 244 262 274 278 288 263 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 134 135 139 139 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 132 132 132 136 133 133 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 42 44 46 51 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -13 -23 -28 -35 -51 -59 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 20 18 16 3 8 18 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 16 18 13 4 7 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1131 1013 927 891 717 432 406 432 466 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.6 20.2 22.1 23.3 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.8 55.6 57.3 58.9 62.1 65.3 68.3 71.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 17 17 17 16 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 36 33 20 24 24 32 27 25 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 29. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 52.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 225.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.1% 12.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 12.2% 7.1% 4.5% 3.4% 3.3% 5.2% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 9.5% 6.4% 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 36 40 44 47 50 54 56 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 34 38 42 45 48 52 54 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 33 37 40 43 47 49 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 25 29 32 35 39 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT