* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 47 50 52 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 47 50 52 56 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 13 18 17 23 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 0 1 2 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 256 243 259 273 277 290 272 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 135 135 139 137 141 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 135 135 134 136 131 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 46 44 47 49 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -5 -11 -17 -31 -51 -60 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 30 23 29 22 0 -3 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 10 15 18 5 8 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1152 1146 1021 935 893 550 369 411 425 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.2 17.9 19.4 20.9 22.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.8 53.5 55.3 57.1 60.6 63.5 66.4 69.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 19 19 17 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 42 35 37 20 27 29 48 30 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 31. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 50.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 17.3% 13.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 23.2% 14.0% 11.4% 9.3% 6.5% 8.4% 10.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 13.9% 9.3% 6.4% 3.1% 2.2% 6.7% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 47 50 52 56 58 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 39 44 47 49 53 55 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 34 39 42 44 48 50 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 30 33 35 39 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT