* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 49 52 53 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 49 52 53 56 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 32 34 37 40 42 44 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 6 10 14 11 11 18 19 18 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 6 6 2 -3 0 3 0 0 1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 344 340 339 319 313 320 311 311 283 312 295 307 280 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 118 122 124 128 133 132 136 136 136 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 118 123 125 129 133 129 130 127 126 133 134 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 64 59 57 57 56 51 52 53 51 49 52 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -39 -34 -25 -22 -18 -11 -26 -21 -29 -27 -34 -44 200 MB DIV 7 4 -6 -1 -11 20 32 26 23 3 4 9 -21 700-850 TADV 8 11 10 14 14 12 14 13 8 3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1670 1571 1486 1396 1310 1228 1127 991 690 525 485 568 602 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.7 17.1 18.6 20.1 21.4 22.4 23.7 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 40.4 41.9 43.8 45.6 49.2 52.8 56.3 59.4 61.9 63.9 66.4 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 18 18 18 18 17 15 12 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 10 19 24 13 28 18 25 14 19 38 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 31. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 38.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.59 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 157.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.6% 8.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.2% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.1% 3.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.7% 4.5% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 49 52 53 56 58 60 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 41 46 49 50 53 55 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 36 41 44 45 48 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 33 36 37 40 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT