* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 43 46 46 49 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 43 46 46 49 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 17 13 18 17 27 20 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 6 5 1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 35 350 343 334 309 303 292 277 256 275 276 285 277 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.9 26.2 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 116 119 121 127 128 127 130 130 131 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 116 120 122 127 125 120 116 113 114 115 117 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 64 60 58 56 54 53 52 52 49 52 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -47 -32 -22 -17 -13 -12 -20 -14 -7 2 2 -6 200 MB DIV 5 7 -8 -16 -11 10 37 28 21 4 5 -9 8 700-850 TADV 5 8 11 12 18 19 16 19 9 6 -4 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 1759 1682 1608 1552 1508 1454 1352 1211 1119 1075 1032 938 826 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 18.9 20.6 22.2 22.9 23.1 23.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.7 39.0 40.6 42.4 44.2 48.0 51.6 54.4 55.8 56.6 57.2 58.2 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 19 20 20 19 17 14 7 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 2 2 10 17 13 10 7 7 7 7 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 21. 24. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 37.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.58 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 141.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 8.8% 7.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 3.6% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.0% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.5% 3.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 43 46 46 49 49 50 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 32 36 40 43 43 46 46 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 32 36 39 39 42 42 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 28 31 31 34 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT