* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL042016 06/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 39 40 40 42 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 18 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 328 342 347 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 151 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -19 -18 -15 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 11 2 -7 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -14 -62 -98 -139 -182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.0 99.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 13 13 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.2 97.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042016 DANIELLE 06/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.43 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.67 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.63 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.1% 8.2% 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 5.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 999.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.8% 3.5% 3.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042016 DANIELLE 06/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042016 DANIELLE 06/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT