* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042016 06/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 35 37 38 40 41 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 14 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 280 294 296 319 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 148 147 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 135 133 132 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -14 -23 -26 -21 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 20 14 15 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 41 -2 -46 -90 -206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.3 96.8 97.3 97.9 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 12 8 20 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.1 95.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042016 FOUR 06/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 39.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.7% 10.9% 9.3% 7.0% 8.6% 14.4% Logistic: 8.1% 26.5% 18.0% 9.9% 0.0% 4.7% 7.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 7.8% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% Consensus: 5.0% 17.0% 10.3% 6.5% 2.3% 4.7% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042016 FOUR 06/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042016 FOUR 06/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 26 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT