* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 27 29 41 43 39 46 44 32 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 8 7 4 23 22 25 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 0 7 8 12 11 8 1 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 196 212 233 210 155 210 172 166 131 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 27.4 28.3 28.3 4.7 7.8 8.3 7.4 3.2 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 131 144 145 67 67 64 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 115 126 127 67 66 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -47.7 -46.1 -44.9 -45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.5 2.6 0.6 3.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 11 14 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 46 42 46 53 60 69 61 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 19 19 26 26 21 28 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 15 13 73 127 172 255 259 267 242 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 68 76 51 65 157 94 95 75 24 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -7 23 44 42 67 13 -36 8 50 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -205 -343 -487 -673 -869 -999 -999 -999 -999 -901 -728 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.1 34.4 36.3 38.1 42.5 47.4 50.6 51.5 51.8 51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.0 92.3 92.0 91.7 89.8 87.3 85.0 82.7 80.2 77.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 16 19 21 25 22 13 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. 1. -0. -7. 2. -3. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -1. 11. 13. 9. 16. 14. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.8 91.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 12.4% 9.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.3% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT