* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 37 42 52 56 55 55 43 43 39 35 31 28 27 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 9 10 9 16 39 18 18 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 0 7 5 1 5 1 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 200 205 224 225 214 190 161 224 196 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.8 28.5 26.7 4.7 6.7 6.0 1.8 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 136 147 126 67 66 64 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 109 118 128 112 66 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.5 -50.0 -49.6 -48.5 -47.5 -46.2 -46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.9 3.5 3.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 11 13 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 44 46 43 49 58 68 64 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 23 20 20 28 31 29 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -23 9 1 82 124 254 253 272 220 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 72 64 83 69 94 73 110 48 18 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -8 -7 18 43 58 -28 10 1 49 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -33 -162 -303 -456 -614 -999 -999 -999 -999 -889 -804 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.6 32.8 34.3 35.7 39.9 44.9 48.9 51.5 52.5 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.1 91.7 91.8 92.0 90.4 88.1 85.4 81.9 79.7 78.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 18 24 24 20 13 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -24. -27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 2. 5. 2. -2. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 2. 7. 17. 21. 20. 20. 8. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.4 90.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 12.3% 9.1% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.3% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 31 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT