* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 51 54 60 58 52 49 34 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 34 31 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 34 31 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 6 8 12 10 34 43 56 27 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 0 0 4 8 12 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 241 251 216 236 217 197 207 175 158 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 28.0 27.3 27.9 28.5 28.5 4.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 137 129 137 146 147 67 66 64 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 119 113 121 127 129 66 65 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -49.7 -49.1 -46.6 -44.9 -44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.6 0.8 2.5 2.8 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 10 12 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 43 45 47 48 59 63 65 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 21 22 21 27 27 29 31 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 5 -29 -9 -8 101 129 245 294 258 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 54 54 63 72 97 170 112 95 60 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 -10 -6 26 44 4 37 -25 0 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -14 -47 -167 -339 -512 -878 -999 -999 -999 -999 -942 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.8 31.8 33.4 34.9 38.3 42.6 47.2 49.6 51.8 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.3 90.8 91.0 91.3 90.8 89.1 86.5 84.1 81.7 79.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 16 16 20 23 19 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -8. -13. -16. -19. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -1. -1. 1. 3. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 15. 13. 7. 4. -11. -15. -21. -28. -33. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.8 89.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.8% 12.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.5% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 40 34 31 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 38 35 33 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT