* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 50 52 55 53 46 46 42 35 29 23 20 16 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 41 35 29 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 41 36 29 27 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 6 10 12 13 15 37 63 45 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 8 8 0 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 341 237 234 261 193 228 198 190 156 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 28.4 27.7 7.0 7.3 5.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 129 128 125 124 145 137 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 113 112 110 108 128 121 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -49.7 -48.1 -46.7 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5 3.2 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 9 10 7 10 5 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 49 46 43 46 45 58 63 63 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 25 24 23 22 21 21 26 28 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 70 50 37 -3 14 85 108 193 281 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 40 47 39 39 86 107 118 108 71 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 0 10 8 -8 80 30 -13 -38 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 257 156 56 -42 -91 -370 -703 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.7 30.7 33.2 36.3 40.7 45.3 49.1 52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.2 90.3 90.7 91.1 92.3 92.9 91.9 89.9 87.6 85.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 14 19 23 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 4 4 2 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -4. -11. -16. -20. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -3. -2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 8. 1. 1. -3. -10. -16. -22. -25. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.8 90.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 14.0% 10.5% 8.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.7% 4.5% 3.1% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 41 35 29 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 45 39 33 27 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 35 29 23 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 29 23 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT