* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 50 50 52 54 55 46 42 38 32 27 22 19 17 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 43 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 48 43 32 28 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 10 8 4 8 12 16 17 45 56 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 5 7 10 5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 296 319 203 217 243 218 215 196 190 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.8 28.4 5.2 7.2 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 124 129 129 124 124 146 67 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 108 112 113 109 109 130 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -49.8 -50.1 -48.7 -46.9 -45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 9 10 5 13 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 55 52 48 46 48 52 63 63 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 26 25 24 23 22 25 25 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 78 69 54 40 -22 35 101 123 270 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 16 36 53 47 54 114 119 110 77 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 10 2 0 5 -5 18 83 22 -3 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 378 273 167 72 -20 -211 -498 -870 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.4 31.8 34.3 38.0 43.0 47.2 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.3 90.3 90.5 90.7 91.7 92.8 92.4 90.5 88.7 87.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 11 13 16 22 24 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 15 4 4 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -6. -13. -16. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -7. -8. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 10. 1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.7 90.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.1% 13.3% 10.6% 9.6% 11.8% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 9.7% 5.1% 0.9% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.3% 6.2% 3.8% 3.3% 4.3% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 49 43 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 41 31 27 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 36 26 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 29 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT