* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 52 52 54 52 53 47 43 38 34 31 29 27 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 40 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 52 41 31 28 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 8 9 4 14 16 19 29 38 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -1 -4 0 1 0 1 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 158 289 313 264 254 210 236 214 194 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.8 28.4 28.1 4.0 6.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 127 125 126 126 124 145 142 68 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 112 110 111 111 109 127 125 N/A 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -49.9 -48.8 -48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.9 2.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 8 7 10 4 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 56 52 44 46 43 54 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 29 28 25 24 23 20 25 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 96 89 81 72 7 12 77 120 192 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 65 24 40 63 31 91 121 122 134 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 10 0 -2 7 -5 59 46 -54 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 392 395 302 195 91 -62 -322 -683 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.4 27.4 28.3 30.3 32.9 36.2 39.9 44.7 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.1 90.0 90.2 90.4 91.0 91.9 92.6 91.3 88.1 83.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 15 18 23 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 27 21 5 3 1 1 3 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 7. 8. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.7 90.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 20.4% 14.9% 11.6% 10.5% 12.5% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 16.8% 9.2% 1.9% 0.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 12.6% 8.1% 4.5% 3.7% 4.8% 5.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 52 40 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 37 28 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 32 23 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT