* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 52 54 54 53 56 52 41 32 25 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 52 48 35 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 50 52 54 35 29 28 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 7 5 7 8 9 16 19 42 61 63 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 -1 -3 0 2 1 5 12 6 -11 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 113 171 276 344 236 245 238 223 209 209 197 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.1 27.6 28.4 9.0 6.5 7.0 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 130 128 125 130 127 134 146 69 67 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 115 113 110 113 111 117 127 67 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.3 -49.7 -50.3 -49.2 -47.6 -47.0 -47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 -0.7 1.2 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 10 6 12 2 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 58 55 48 45 46 48 61 63 68 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 27 27 27 25 22 22 23 22 25 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 95 89 79 69 32 -21 9 93 102 248 290 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 63 59 39 45 53 37 135 116 101 97 67 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 1 5 8 1 8 -13 24 46 65 64 -42 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 293 382 412 301 190 -11 -166 -480 -830 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.4 27.4 29.3 31.3 34.4 37.7 42.1 47.0 50.8 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.2 90.3 90.2 90.2 90.7 91.6 92.1 92.0 90.3 87.2 84.4 82.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 10 13 16 19 25 24 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 22 25 20 5 4 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 3. -5. -16. -24. -28. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 11. 7. -4. -13. -20. -26. -29. -31. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.8 90.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 26.0% 17.9% 12.7% 11.7% 16.5% 22.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 10.2% 5.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 12.4% 7.8% 4.6% 4.0% 6.3% 7.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 50 52 48 35 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 49 45 32 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 41 28 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT