* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 50 53 53 50 49 47 43 41 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 37 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 49 37 30 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 2 5 5 6 6 13 17 20 27 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 -1 0 -2 0 3 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 235 119 155 285 285 250 218 249 215 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.6 26.8 26.5 28.1 28.1 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 131 129 131 123 120 141 142 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 115 116 113 115 107 105 123 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -49.8 -50.0 -50.0 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 9 7 11 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 62 59 50 42 41 41 52 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 27 26 26 24 24 21 19 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 77 84 92 80 61 -21 9 55 89 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 58 61 67 38 38 36 76 107 102 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 2 2 5 -1 11 2 51 35 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 232 331 430 356 256 58 -85 -355 -672 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.1 25.0 25.9 26.8 28.6 30.5 33.0 36.0 39.8 44.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.3 90.4 90.3 90.3 90.4 91.4 92.5 92.9 91.5 88.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 17 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 18 22 25 14 4 1 1 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -12. -16. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 13. 10. 9. 7. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.2 90.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 20.0% 14.6% 11.1% 10.0% 12.6% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 9.3% 4.7% 0.8% 0.2% 1.8% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.9% 6.5% 4.0% 3.4% 4.8% 5.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 47 49 37 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 46 34 27 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 41 29 22 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT