* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 55 57 60 60 57 57 52 51 45 40 36 34 30 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 55 57 48 34 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 52 54 46 33 29 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 8 4 7 15 15 18 21 52 60 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 3 4 -2 -1 0 0 3 12 5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 208 185 152 194 313 233 241 238 212 197 206 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.8 28.1 12.2 6.0 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 130 130 130 127 124 121 124 141 71 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 117 116 114 111 108 106 108 123 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.5 -50.3 -49.0 -46.9 -45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 11 5 13 1 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 62 60 51 44 41 44 50 53 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 30 29 29 27 27 25 22 21 24 32 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 69 74 83 103 74 34 -33 43 74 88 272 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 78 67 71 66 22 27 42 118 82 96 86 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 5 3 1 1 10 -8 16 21 -3 16 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 236 352 428 323 124 -54 -226 -527 -864 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.2 28.0 29.8 31.9 34.6 38.0 42.0 47.3 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.1 90.3 90.2 90.2 90.4 90.9 91.8 92.8 92.1 89.9 86.9 83.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 13 15 19 25 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 11 19 23 24 4 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. -2. -12. -21. -25. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -8. -9. -7. 4. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 17. 20. 20. 17. 17. 12. 11. 5. -0. -4. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.2 90.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 30.1% 20.2% 12.7% 11.3% 13.4% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 13.8% 8.4% 2.7% 0.5% 3.6% 3.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 14.8% 9.7% 5.2% 3.9% 5.7% 6.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 53 55 57 48 34 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 50 52 43 29 24 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 44 35 21 16 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT