* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 44 49 51 55 58 62 61 59 56 51 49 46 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 52 54 57 61 45 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 43 45 47 49 51 40 31 28 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 6 6 7 5 12 12 12 25 69 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 1 6 -3 0 0 1 5 8 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 216 225 188 129 284 241 247 207 246 205 208 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 26.7 26.5 28.1 28.1 21.2 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 131 130 130 130 129 130 121 120 140 140 86 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 120 119 117 115 113 113 106 104 121 119 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -49.4 -49.9 -49.8 -48.7 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 7 11 5 6 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 65 64 62 55 48 41 43 44 50 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 29 31 30 28 27 27 24 21 20 25 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 97 75 75 95 90 64 -8 5 55 77 86 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 105 76 66 74 44 25 40 76 111 85 69 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 13 7 5 5 0 6 -7 40 23 -47 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -38 84 205 308 411 268 80 -71 -308 -591 -909 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.0 24.9 26.7 28.4 30.3 32.6 35.4 38.5 41.6 44.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.7 89.9 90.0 90.1 90.1 90.1 90.4 91.1 92.2 92.3 91.4 90.0 88.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 11 13 15 16 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 9 9 17 20 17 4 1 1 3 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. -3. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -9. -4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 14. 16. 20. 23. 27. 26. 24. 21. 16. 14. 11. 8. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.8 89.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 21.6% 15.3% 11.2% 9.9% 12.7% 16.2% 20.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.4% 6.1% 1.3% 0.2% 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 11.1% 7.2% 4.2% 3.4% 5.0% 6.4% 7.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 41 46 52 54 57 61 45 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 47 50 54 38 26 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 39 42 46 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT