* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 46 49 54 58 60 60 61 60 47 44 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 30 29 34 38 44 47 52 57 38 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 32 34 36 38 38 39 31 28 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 20 13 11 9 6 12 6 7 7 51 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 0 0 5 -1 -3 1 0 14 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 265 228 235 231 183 211 211 239 219 178 200 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 28.7 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.7 26.9 26.5 28.1 28.1 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 147 132 128 131 130 128 133 124 119 140 141 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 136 121 116 118 116 112 116 107 103 119 121 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -50.1 -48.9 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 9 7 11 6 13 3 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 67 63 58 50 44 42 49 46 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 27 32 30 29 27 25 23 23 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 116 112 93 97 102 89 44 -8 22 75 72 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 146 136 118 87 68 68 7 40 23 86 53 27 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 10 13 8 5 4 2 -6 3 69 -10 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -65 -38 37 141 246 438 234 31 -132 -370 -612 -915 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.3 25.1 27.0 28.9 31.0 33.2 35.6 38.6 42.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.1 90.1 90.2 90.3 90.3 90.2 90.6 91.7 92.3 92.3 91.0 88.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 12 14 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 27 16 6 11 21 10 5 1 1 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 2. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -1. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 24. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. 17. 14. 12. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.5 90.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 16.4% 11.6% 8.2% 6.8% 10.3% 11.3% 16.9% Logistic: 1.1% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 2.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 7.1% 4.6% 3.0% 2.3% 4.0% 4.5% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 34 38 44 47 52 57 38 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 44 47 52 57 38 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 39 44 49 30 22 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 29 34 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT