* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 46 58 65 66 66 63 60 57 56 55 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 42 49 50 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 35 37 38 39 35 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 14 14 16 10 7 11 13 10 6 5 20 44 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 5 4 0 10 -1 0 -3 0 13 20 4 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 298 295 266 232 240 217 234 219 233 218 226 221 220 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 29.9 28.6 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.4 28.0 27.6 26.4 27.6 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 171 167 145 128 130 126 129 136 130 117 131 134 134 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 167 170 170 156 133 115 116 111 113 117 110 99 109 109 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 6 8 6 10 5 13 6 11 1 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 75 74 67 60 54 45 44 48 49 43 35 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 18 20 23 29 30 27 25 21 20 18 19 23 28 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 113 102 116 115 101 113 103 69 12 31 85 45 -96 -95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 115 140 134 111 80 67 15 22 5 29 42 19 -44 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 7 9 8 10 6 7 8 4 -3 -1 21 43 -60 -39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -124 -97 -64 -33 -2 190 409 303 95 -49 -202 -369 -505 -656 -811 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.0 20.9 22.7 24.7 26.4 28.4 30.2 31.6 33.1 34.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.5 90.3 90.1 90.2 90.3 90.6 90.8 90.6 91.3 92.3 93.1 93.0 91.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 24 33 27 7 20 15 4 3 2 0 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. -4. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 10. 7. 1. -2. -5. -4. 0. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 28. 35. 36. 36. 33. 30. 27. 26. 25. 26. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 90.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 20.1% 13.4% 8.8% 7.4% 11.0% 12.6% 18.9% Logistic: 4.5% 21.4% 9.7% 3.2% 0.8% 3.8% 4.9% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 3.2% 13.9% 7.8% 4.0% 2.7% 4.9% 5.9% 7.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 42 49 50 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 42 49 50 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 40 47 48 48 38 29 26 25 25 25 26 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 35 42 43 43 33 24 21 20 20 20 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT