* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 40 49 59 66 64 60 58 53 53 48 40 32 24 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 38 48 54 52 42 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 33 37 40 40 35 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 13 10 15 9 11 13 14 8 8 2 19 38 58 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 3 2 7 0 5 -2 -2 -1 1 4 5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 295 292 299 293 254 230 209 218 210 214 225 337 341 179 196 208 212 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.5 29.7 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.9 26.6 24.2 8.3 4.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 170 171 164 129 130 129 124 123 121 122 136 122 103 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 167 170 170 153 117 117 114 109 108 104 104 115 104 91 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 9 6 10 6 9 1 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 83 80 79 77 70 65 58 50 44 46 50 52 41 31 40 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 16 19 23 27 28 24 20 18 14 15 13 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 116 131 116 112 123 81 98 84 97 26 32 41 84 -3 -59 -63 45 200 MB DIV 82 87 108 134 140 69 74 59 35 50 16 52 45 12 6 -11 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 3 5 1 6 11 0 1 -5 30 -2 -28 -38 -56 -20 LAND (KM) -115 -93 -91 -36 -20 126 326 370 148 -21 -230 -436 -651 -856 -960 -838 -724 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.2 20.1 22.1 23.9 25.8 27.8 29.8 31.9 34.0 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.9 90.6 90.4 90.3 90.3 90.6 90.9 90.7 90.9 91.4 92.1 92.0 91.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 15 21 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 34 35 7 14 19 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 8. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. -4. -11. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 8. 2. -1. -7. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 10. 19. 29. 36. 34. 30. 28. 23. 23. 18. 10. 2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 90.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 19.2% 12.8% 8.5% 7.2% 10.8% 11.6% 18.1% Logistic: 3.3% 29.2% 12.9% 4.7% 1.9% 4.4% 7.3% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 2.4% 16.2% 8.6% 4.4% 3.0% 5.0% 6.3% 8.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 38 48 54 52 42 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 38 48 54 52 42 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 36 46 52 50 40 30 26 25 26 27 28 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 31 41 47 45 35 25 21 20 21 22 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT