* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 34 44 53 60 64 59 54 53 48 51 57 55 48 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 31 41 47 51 47 36 30 28 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 30 34 37 38 38 32 28 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 12 12 13 17 8 10 15 17 19 13 7 12 23 50 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 1 1 3 1 10 -1 3 -3 -5 0 8 14 3 2 SHEAR DIR 304 298 292 284 288 234 209 199 218 204 231 243 316 242 222 212 221 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 28.6 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.6 26.4 27.6 27.9 25.7 21.8 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 170 145 127 130 126 126 132 118 133 137 113 88 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 163 166 166 167 133 115 116 112 110 115 103 113 117 98 78 71 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -50.7 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.9 -50.6 -49.8 -49.6 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 7 6 8 6 9 4 9 2 8 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 83 81 82 80 79 77 69 65 59 51 49 52 52 53 47 43 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 15 16 21 24 26 25 21 17 17 13 15 22 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 107 121 129 123 127 121 99 108 105 62 23 10 79 78 50 28 24 200 MB DIV 72 75 77 111 151 121 78 77 29 51 17 32 53 73 4 0 9 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 2 6 7 5 7 10 5 -1 7 6 38 30 -30 -20 LAND (KM) -111 -94 -92 -79 -48 8 187 385 292 95 -30 -287 -546 -756 -912 -806 -787 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.5 19.0 20.9 22.7 24.5 26.5 28.3 30.1 32.4 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.3 90.4 90.5 90.7 90.7 91.0 91.9 92.3 92.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 18 31 26 7 19 13 3 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 8. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 2. -4. -5. -10. -8. -0. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 4. 14. 23. 30. 34. 29. 24. 23. 18. 21. 27. 25. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 91.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 17.7% 11.8% 7.8% 6.6% 10.5% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 38.7% 20.8% 9.6% 5.0% 8.1% 12.9% 17.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 2.6% 18.9% 10.9% 5.8% 3.9% 6.2% 8.1% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 31 41 47 51 47 36 30 28 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 31 41 47 51 47 36 30 28 27 28 29 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 29 39 45 49 45 34 28 26 25 26 27 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 34 40 44 40 29 23 21 20 21 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT