* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 48 57 65 66 63 57 54 47 45 42 37 38 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 28 27 36 44 46 42 37 29 27 27 27 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 28 27 33 37 39 40 39 30 28 27 27 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 15 11 11 13 5 13 14 20 10 9 4 40 53 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 7 1 9 2 4 -2 -2 8 10 9 6 3 SHEAR DIR 298 302 299 292 280 276 208 175 216 208 210 214 305 185 202 209 215 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.5 29.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 26.8 27.0 26.6 26.1 27.8 27.5 24.3 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 170 161 131 131 131 122 124 119 115 135 133 103 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 162 164 165 149 119 117 116 108 108 102 98 116 115 91 78 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -49.5 -50.2 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 9 5 9 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 84 81 81 82 80 76 72 67 63 55 50 51 50 51 48 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 20 24 27 27 22 19 17 12 10 12 15 25 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 115 122 127 124 99 107 104 98 33 27 33 70 34 31 17 200 MB DIV 54 62 67 71 95 128 84 100 46 46 49 31 51 37 10 17 0 700-850 TADV -3 1 2 2 4 11 7 8 17 1 6 -5 19 36 -31 -22 -35 LAND (KM) -67 -72 -79 -43 -34 -16 112 321 392 171 0 -197 -377 -588 -854 -999 -789 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.4 18.9 20.3 22.0 23.9 25.6 27.6 29.7 31.6 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.3 91.1 90.9 90.6 90.3 90.5 90.7 90.7 91.0 91.6 92.1 92.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 6 6 8 9 9 9 11 10 9 10 14 18 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 7 39 42 36 8 15 20 3 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. -1. -8. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 9. 8. 2. -3. -7. -14. -16. -14. -10. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 13. 22. 30. 31. 28. 22. 19. 12. 10. 7. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 91.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 19.1% 13.0% 9.3% 8.2% 11.6% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 37.5% 21.7% 10.2% 6.5% 10.3% 12.2% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 3.7% 19.0% 11.6% 6.6% 4.9% 7.3% 8.2% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 28 28 27 36 44 46 42 37 29 27 27 27 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 30 29 38 46 48 44 39 31 29 29 29 31 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 29 28 37 45 47 43 38 30 28 28 28 30 31 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 33 41 43 39 34 26 24 24 24 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT