* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 44 49 56 63 66 64 58 53 52 50 50 46 40 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 30 29 35 43 49 52 50 45 32 29 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 32 30 29 34 38 41 42 42 41 31 28 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 13 16 15 15 14 12 12 21 18 11 16 25 42 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 2 0 5 0 8 -2 0 -3 -2 0 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 308 308 306 296 285 273 222 214 178 217 210 254 258 268 213 205 205 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.3 29.9 28.0 27.5 27.6 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.1 26.8 27.8 25.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 168 168 168 168 166 136 130 131 122 122 121 114 121 135 115 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 152 155 156 156 152 124 118 117 108 106 104 97 102 115 101 81 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -51.0 -50.3 -51.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 5 6 6 8 5 10 4 12 3 7 0 3 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 81 81 78 75 69 64 57 50 49 51 51 51 39 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 17 23 26 26 23 19 16 16 14 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 95 94 92 103 115 120 109 96 99 98 62 -5 8 56 44 45 72 200 MB DIV 32 51 60 76 81 122 103 100 82 29 26 16 21 30 63 50 72 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 4 4 3 6 5 7 6 4 -3 9 33 13 -26 -21 LAND (KM) -33 -28 -22 -16 -29 13 54 243 424 203 22 -130 -346 -501 -642 -873 -812 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.8 21.4 23.2 25.3 27.3 29.2 31.0 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.5 91.2 91.0 90.9 90.7 90.6 90.6 90.6 90.8 91.3 91.9 92.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 2 4 7 8 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 13 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 39 44 43 38 15 10 22 4 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 8. 8. 3. -2. -7. -8. -10. -7. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 26. 24. 18. 13. 12. 10. 10. 6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 91.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 19.7% 13.8% 10.4% 9.5% 11.9% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 25.6% 14.0% 6.7% 4.1% 7.2% 5.9% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 3.3% 15.3% 9.3% 5.7% 4.5% 6.4% 6.1% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 30 29 35 43 49 52 50 45 32 29 27 27 28 29 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 39 47 53 56 54 49 36 33 31 31 32 33 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 39 47 53 56 54 49 36 33 31 31 32 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 35 43 49 52 50 45 32 29 27 27 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT