* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 62 67 72 71 67 63 60 55 55 50 40 V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 31 29 28 27 34 39 39 35 29 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 31 29 27 27 33 36 38 40 34 29 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 14 13 16 14 10 8 13 8 15 6 7 9 46 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 0 2 3 3 5 0 3 -1 -3 5 9 4 4 SHEAR DIR 323 307 302 309 301 276 230 202 192 221 185 228 251 297 200 209 200 SST (C) 29.7 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 29.6 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.1 27.8 27.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 169 168 168 168 169 161 130 131 129 122 119 121 114 135 137 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 160 164 163 166 161 149 118 118 115 107 102 103 98 116 118 95 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 10 6 8 2 3 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 83 82 80 77 70 67 62 56 51 52 50 50 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 16 20 23 25 24 21 19 17 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 89 93 97 101 116 117 125 95 102 90 88 30 16 62 45 22 73 200 MB DIV 43 37 53 69 79 100 129 65 83 57 66 65 29 32 72 75 57 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 2 1 3 6 4 5 0 6 -9 24 32 -7 -19 LAND (KM) -22 -61 -101 -82 -70 -15 -6 140 347 325 93 -29 -174 -365 -571 -844 -999 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.1 17.7 17.9 18.1 19.1 20.3 22.2 24.2 26.2 28.3 30.0 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.5 91.1 91.0 90.8 90.6 90.4 90.7 90.5 90.6 90.9 91.5 92.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 3 2 4 6 8 10 10 11 10 8 8 9 13 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 34 26 6 6 7 41 37 7 17 17 2 1 1 0 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. -0. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 0. -3. -7. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 22. 27. 26. 22. 18. 15. 10. 10. 5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.4 91.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 20.9% 14.4% 11.2% 9.7% 12.9% 13.6% 17.5% Logistic: 6.4% 36.4% 21.6% 11.8% 8.3% 11.4% 11.0% 15.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% Consensus: 4.5% 19.5% 12.1% 7.8% 6.0% 8.1% 8.2% 11.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 34 31 29 28 27 34 39 39 35 29 27 27 27 27 29 18HR AGO 45 44 39 36 34 33 32 39 44 44 40 34 32 32 32 32 34 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 35 34 41 46 46 42 36 34 34 34 34 36 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 31 38 43 43 39 33 31 31 31 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT