* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 58 59 59 60 65 69 76 74 68 62 57 51 52 59 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 58 44 38 40 45 49 56 55 48 38 30 28 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 58 46 40 42 49 56 61 59 54 44 32 28 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 13 13 9 13 14 17 17 16 19 19 17 24 16 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 2 2 5 -2 4 -2 0 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 300 305 305 309 308 301 284 256 243 227 214 183 235 248 275 263 207 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.3 29.9 29.2 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.2 26.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 160 164 168 167 165 154 130 131 129 122 124 121 115 123 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 142 148 152 153 149 141 119 117 114 108 108 103 98 106 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 10 8 11 0 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 82 82 80 79 78 70 65 59 52 46 47 46 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 14 14 13 13 17 21 27 27 23 20 17 14 14 25 850 MB ENV VOR 84 77 86 94 91 113 120 124 104 99 97 92 34 22 -26 71 65 200 MB DIV 53 46 28 33 41 62 78 85 77 84 52 91 18 0 23 43 36 700-850 TADV -3 -3 1 -1 -2 3 4 4 5 10 7 0 6 -4 0 28 -1 LAND (KM) 44 33 22 0 -22 -3 34 58 181 374 337 132 -56 -247 -402 -646 -952 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.7 19.3 20.4 22.4 24.3 26.1 28.0 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.1 92.0 91.8 91.5 91.2 91.2 91.0 91.2 91.1 90.9 91.2 92.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 2 2 5 7 10 9 9 11 11 8 9 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 30 36 41 45 41 33 7 17 14 2 1 1 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -3. 1. 8. 7. 1. -3. -7. -11. -11. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 15. 19. 26. 24. 18. 12. 7. 1. 2. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 92.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 45.1% 30.0% 14.7% 12.1% 24.6% 36.3% 24.1% Logistic: 15.4% 59.6% 43.1% 21.2% 14.7% 27.3% 28.5% 28.7% Bayesian: 4.3% 12.2% 2.5% 2.6% 0.5% 2.0% 1.4% 21.0% Consensus: 10.6% 39.0% 25.2% 12.8% 9.1% 17.9% 22.0% 24.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 57 58 44 38 40 45 49 56 55 48 38 30 28 27 28 18HR AGO 50 49 52 53 39 33 35 40 44 51 50 43 33 25 23 22 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 33 27 29 34 38 45 44 37 27 19 17 16 17 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 26 20 22 27 31 38 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT