* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 50 51 52 53 56 64 69 74 71 65 58 56 53 49 V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 50 43 43 44 48 55 60 65 62 56 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 43 44 47 53 61 66 68 65 60 39 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 8 12 11 10 10 9 14 15 5 16 17 15 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 3 2 0 3 1 7 0 5 1 -1 0 3 1 15 SHEAR DIR 284 302 314 310 306 309 288 292 242 239 200 210 217 256 251 268 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.0 29.6 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.0 26.7 27.0 27.0 26.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 161 164 167 167 160 135 130 131 125 121 123 124 115 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 137 145 147 151 150 146 122 116 118 112 107 105 105 99 110 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.0 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -50.0 -49.8 -50.3 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 7 8 6 7 5 7 5 7 5 9 6 13 7 10 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 79 81 80 81 80 75 70 66 60 52 49 50 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 14 14 15 20 24 28 26 22 18 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 80 87 79 89 97 104 136 121 122 113 101 94 71 0 5 10 39 200 MB DIV 73 51 37 30 27 48 65 96 83 94 102 69 58 -3 15 12 24 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 0 0 1 3 5 9 3 5 4 2 -6 7 33 57 LAND (KM) 67 50 33 11 -11 0 10 57 136 255 427 237 25 -162 -293 -508 -830 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.9 21.5 23.1 24.9 27.0 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.3 92.4 92.1 91.8 91.4 91.3 91.1 91.5 91.3 90.7 90.8 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 2 2 4 6 8 9 10 12 11 8 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 29 37 39 43 35 10 9 18 6 2 1 1 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -2. 3. 9. 5. -2. -8. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 16. 24. 29. 34. 31. 25. 18. 16. 13. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.2 92.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 42.6% 28.2% 13.4% 11.7% 18.0% 30.4% 41.8% Logistic: 17.8% 65.5% 51.4% 33.3% 21.2% 33.7% 36.7% 49.7% Bayesian: 3.9% 16.7% 3.3% 4.9% 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 20.1% Consensus: 10.2% 41.6% 27.6% 17.2% 11.3% 17.7% 22.6% 37.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 48 50 43 43 44 48 55 60 65 62 56 36 30 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 37 37 38 42 49 54 59 56 50 30 24 22 21 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 31 31 32 36 43 48 53 50 44 24 18 16 15 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 23 23 24 28 35 40 45 42 36 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT