* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 43 43 44 45 49 55 61 66 67 63 57 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 43 37 32 29 35 41 47 52 53 49 43 39 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 35 31 29 35 40 46 49 50 49 48 49 38 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 7 9 10 5 17 10 17 7 13 13 24 22 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 4 2 2 2 -1 5 1 10 1 3 -3 -3 5 1 SHEAR DIR 277 286 301 306 307 323 325 272 225 241 223 237 210 239 247 268 270 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.5 27.5 27.6 27.1 26.8 27.1 27.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 159 159 161 165 165 162 142 130 132 126 120 124 126 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 142 141 142 147 150 146 127 117 119 111 103 107 111 102 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 11 8 12 700-500 MB RH 81 83 82 81 80 81 80 80 80 76 70 62 59 54 49 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 17 15 14 13 14 17 21 25 25 22 19 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 78 86 87 85 92 102 130 129 129 128 138 133 105 62 83 20 25 200 MB DIV 84 88 50 51 42 45 64 100 109 101 76 35 82 44 8 19 30 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -4 3 7 5 14 1 5 -6 4 37 LAND (KM) 70 56 44 11 -22 -11 -22 21 28 41 176 377 248 95 65 -125 -513 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.7 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.9 20.0 21.0 22.4 24.3 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.7 92.6 92.4 92.3 92.2 92.0 91.8 91.5 90.8 90.7 91.1 91.2 90.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 5 5 6 9 11 10 7 8 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 27 31 33 38 38 39 24 7 17 8 2 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -7. -2. 2. 2. -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 14. 20. 26. 31. 32. 28. 22. 18. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 92.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 31.6% 19.8% 12.6% 11.0% 13.4% 17.1% 28.9% Logistic: 13.1% 58.4% 40.5% 29.9% 18.6% 32.5% 40.3% 61.7% Bayesian: 3.3% 12.6% 3.5% 4.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.4% 13.5% Consensus: 8.0% 34.2% 21.3% 15.8% 10.3% 15.8% 19.3% 34.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 43 37 32 29 35 41 47 52 53 49 43 39 32 28 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 32 27 24 30 36 42 47 48 44 38 34 27 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 26 21 18 24 30 36 41 42 38 32 28 21 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT