* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032020 06/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 37 39 44 50 59 65 70 68 63 58 58 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 37 39 44 50 59 65 70 68 63 58 58 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 36 37 37 40 45 51 57 59 57 54 53 54 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 8 8 11 11 8 11 13 12 16 9 21 18 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 7 8 6 3 2 3 0 5 5 6 2 0 0 1 8 SHEAR DIR 272 280 292 323 336 326 338 286 302 249 242 211 225 207 242 253 276 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.9 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 152 154 154 154 153 148 135 129 130 128 122 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 135 135 134 135 136 136 136 132 121 115 115 113 107 107 107 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 5 8 6 8 5 8 6 9 6 9 7 12 9 700-500 MB RH 81 81 82 80 79 78 77 79 78 77 70 65 59 55 51 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 19 16 15 14 16 21 24 28 26 22 18 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 64 81 90 92 89 98 115 128 133 148 168 157 150 125 97 67 41 200 MB DIV 85 83 81 54 36 16 37 60 91 56 74 77 49 46 6 17 8 700-850 TADV -2 0 -4 0 0 1 2 1 -1 4 0 11 7 3 -5 0 5 LAND (KM) 111 89 72 59 45 18 24 67 89 152 159 226 370 374 202 60 -80 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.8 19.2 19.4 20.1 21.3 22.7 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.6 92.8 92.9 93.0 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.2 92.0 91.8 91.5 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 22 22 24 24 23 22 18 11 9 17 12 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -1. 2. 6. 2. -3. -8. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 9. 14. 20. 29. 35. 40. 38. 33. 28. 28. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 92.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 16.1% 11.7% 8.8% 7.0% 10.4% 11.4% 20.9% Logistic: 3.8% 24.7% 11.1% 8.4% 3.9% 17.0% 34.9% 59.4% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25.2% Consensus: 3.4% 13.9% 7.6% 5.8% 3.6% 9.2% 15.5% 35.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 THREE 06/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 36 38 37 39 44 50 59 65 70 68 63 58 58 40 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 33 35 40 46 55 61 66 64 59 54 54 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 28 30 35 41 50 56 61 59 54 49 49 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 21 23 28 34 43 49 54 52 47 42 42 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT