* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032020 06/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 39 39 41 45 51 55 63 67 69 67 62 59 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 39 39 35 31 29 36 43 48 50 48 43 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 34 30 29 35 41 46 47 47 47 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 7 7 7 9 9 12 8 12 16 18 12 12 20 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 3 4 4 3 0 1 2 3 4 0 2 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 251 275 288 289 318 325 332 309 276 261 245 231 214 196 233 234 269 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 158 158 157 157 157 162 159 151 139 131 132 128 121 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 139 141 139 139 138 139 144 143 137 126 119 118 112 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 7 10 9 700-500 MB RH 84 81 81 81 82 78 78 77 79 78 75 70 67 61 55 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 16 17 14 13 13 14 16 21 25 26 24 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 67 62 79 94 85 93 100 127 120 146 148 165 137 125 69 65 5 200 MB DIV 88 86 79 92 51 42 38 74 60 79 82 73 54 77 45 14 29 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 -5 -2 1 2 -1 -2 0 0 6 5 1 3 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 107 94 78 56 35 5 -3 -14 -11 56 139 136 203 411 237 89 38 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.5 19.1 19.9 21.2 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.1 92.3 92.5 92.6 92.7 92.8 92.8 92.4 92.2 92.1 91.6 90.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 8 9 10 10 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 25 25 26 26 26 29 26 20 12 8 18 9 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. 2. 6. 7. 3. -2. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 15. 21. 25. 33. 37. 39. 37. 32. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 92.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 18.6% 13.2% 9.8% 8.1% 11.4% 12.7% 22.5% Logistic: 4.3% 46.1% 24.6% 15.0% 8.2% 26.7% 37.0% 71.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 20.5% Consensus: 3.4% 21.9% 12.7% 8.3% 5.4% 12.8% 16.7% 38.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 THREE 06/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 37 39 39 35 31 29 36 43 48 50 48 43 40 37 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 35 35 31 27 25 32 39 44 46 44 39 36 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 29 25 21 19 26 33 38 40 38 33 30 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT