* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032020 06/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 31 34 35 41 47 51 55 60 67 65 59 52 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 31 34 35 41 40 46 51 55 62 61 54 48 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 30 35 39 42 44 43 41 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 6 4 5 6 9 13 15 17 23 24 18 15 24 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 5 2 4 1 0 1 3 3 4 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 242 252 255 242 262 332 327 314 303 278 266 248 216 220 207 225 238 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.1 27.6 27.8 27.1 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 155 154 156 158 155 156 155 159 158 139 132 133 124 121 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 138 138 136 139 139 136 136 136 143 146 131 121 116 108 105 109 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -49.8 -50.0 -49.6 -49.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 8 5 7 5 8 6 8 6 9 7 13 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 81 81 79 79 79 79 77 76 68 63 55 50 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 15 12 12 14 16 19 23 28 26 22 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 70 66 68 89 98 91 113 115 132 139 165 165 131 121 110 47 32 200 MB DIV 95 94 80 70 80 44 42 68 74 77 61 95 76 57 31 -3 6 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 0 -4 -1 -5 4 1 6 10 3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 88 106 101 87 75 37 7 26 -4 2 89 129 358 324 215 119 -36 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.8 18.5 18.7 18.4 18.5 19.4 21.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.2 92.6 92.8 92.9 93.1 93.2 93.1 93.2 93.0 92.4 91.5 90.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 3 8 13 13 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 22 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 22 12 16 22 6 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. 37. 37. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -6. -5. -3. 0. 5. 11. 7. 0. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 16. 22. 26. 30. 35. 42. 40. 34. 27. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 91.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 19.9% 14.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 40.3% 21.4% 9.9% 4.3% 16.0% 26.3% 59.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 12.8% Consensus: 2.9% 20.2% 11.9% 6.7% 1.4% 5.4% 13.1% 24.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 THREE 06/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 30 31 34 35 41 40 46 51 55 62 61 54 48 38 18HR AGO 25 24 27 28 29 32 33 39 38 44 49 53 60 59 52 46 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 27 33 32 38 43 47 54 53 46 40 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 20 26 25 31 36 40 47 46 39 33 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT