* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032019 07/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 50 52 52 52 51 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 31 36 39 43 48 51 51 50 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 31 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 50 237 226 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 30.1 29.5 28.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 175 165 154 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 164 156 146 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 67 60 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 49 76 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 59 91 49 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 213 123 4 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 30.5 32.4 34.8 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.1 78.4 76.6 74.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 24 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 70 41 26 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 843 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.6 79.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032019 THREE 07/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.2% 9.5% 6.0% 4.6% 7.9% 9.6% 999.0% Logistic: 4.3% 5.9% 3.4% 2.1% 0.3% 1.8% 1.2% 999.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.7% 4.3% 2.7% 1.6% 3.2% 3.6% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032019 THREE 07/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032019 THREE 07/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 31 36 39 43 48 51 51 50 50 51 18HR AGO 30 29 31 28 33 36 40 45 48 48 47 47 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 28 31 35 40 43 43 42 42 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 28 32 37 40 40 39 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT